It sure looks like the Bad Guys are winning in Iraq. This is very sad news for anybody there who wants to live in the civilized world, where people own their own bodies, minds, the fruits of their labors, and contracts they freely engage with their fellows, where race and gender and confession have no official regard, where people live under rule by officials elected by the people, where every soul answers equally to the same laws, where those laws must honor the consequences of "self-ownership" sometimes described as "inalienable rights", where all laws and government officials ultimately trace back to what the governed themselves have expressed at the ballot box.
This an ideal, of course, which no nation 100% succeeds in obtaining, but only some precious few at least attempt to obtain. I approximate the US as achieving this ideal somewhere around 90%. But I am certain that whichever anti-US forces win in the non-Kurdish Iraqi areas, the people will settle into a situation close to 0%, with no official attempt at ever achiving the free socieity I have described. Where the US would have its way, as it has in Iraq's Kurdistan, I am convinced that the people would enjoy something close to the USA's success in achieving a modern civilization.
I do fault Bush with not more perfectly implimenting his invasion and rebuilding of Iraq. But the success in Kurdistan proves to me that he did a good enough job that the hope of civilization rested with the Iraqi people themselves: the people of the Kurdish third of the nation collectively wanted civilization to overcome the tyrants in their midst, but apparently not the collective populations of the Sunni and Shia two-thirds. We now see what would have happened back in '92 had Bush I honored his committment with Shia leaders to invade then and extract the Hussein Baathist autocracy: an equally retarded Shia autocracy.